Rochefort, 24 November 2018 (credit: Xavier Leoty/AFP)
[update below] [2nd update below] [3rd update below] [4th update below] [5th update below] [6th update below] [7th update below] [8th update below] [9th update below] [10th update below] [11th update below]
I’ve been closely following the Gilets Jaunes movement over the past two-three weeks, reading analyses—several very good, by social scientists and historians—in the press and various websites, and trying to understand it. I intend to write something on the subject, by next weekend inshallah. In the meantime, stateside friends, family members, and relatives, who have seen dramatic televised images, have been asking me about it. In lieu of my own take, which will come, promis juré, here are some good reports in English that I came across today.
One is the latest dispatch by The Washington Post’s invariably excellent Paris correspondent, James McAuley, “In France, the pain behind the ‘yellow vest’ protests is felt mostly outside Paris.”
Another is by veteran Paris correspondent John Lichfield, who writes in The Local that “The savage violence which erupted in Paris on Saturday was not a protest, it was an insurrection.”
The images of the violence and destruction in Paris yesterday were shocking indeed, not to mention outrageous. Whatever the legitimacy of the revindications of the Gilets Jaunes, these cannot be served by rioting, arson, and destruction.
As for who was responsible for this, Lichfield writes
I was on the avenues and streets surrounding the Arc de Triomphe most of the day. The “casseurs” (thugs) were, actively or by consent, the overwhelming majority of the 10,000 gilets jaunes (yellow vests) in the capital.
At least 70 per cent, by my reckoning, were not urban guerrillas from the ultra-right or from the anarchist left. They were amateur provincial guerrillas. They came from the radical parts of the gilets jaunes movement in suffering areas of northern or western France or from the outer Paris suburbs. They were mostly men in their 20s and 30s but there were many older men and some women.
Lichfield may have been there—whereas I was chez moi in my banlieue flat, catching up in the evening via reports on the télé—but I do not believe, until definitive proof to the contrary, that the majority of casseurs were bona fide Gilets Jaunes. The televised images after the fact showed many of the casseurs to be the usual hooligans who profit from such movements to loot, pillage, and torch cars. As for casseurs who were wearing a gilet jaune (yellow vest), any wanker can put one on. Hell, I could put one on myself—I have a gilet jaune in the trunk of my car, as does every car owner in France (it’s the law), and they can be purchased in any supermarket—but that would not ipso facto make me a #GiletJaune.
There were certainly radicalized elements from the provinces who came to Paris to raise hell—we know this, as quite a few were arrested yesterday—but I will wager that they did not participate in the first big Gilet Jaune demos on November 17th, or even the 24th. Those in the image up top were far more representative. And they are not the rioting, smashing types. There has certainly been a bandwagon effect over the past two weeks. And it is incontestable that ultra-left and ultra-right groupuscules played an important part in yesterday’s rioting (antifa and alt-right joining forces, if you will).
And then there were faux Gilets Jaunes, e.g. this well-known hard-right activist—from the 2013 anti-gay marriage movement—who slipped on a yellow vest and was interviewed as a legitimate Gilet Jaune by Russia Today (whose reporter wore a helmet, as if in a war zone):
Axel Rovkam, l’un des initiateurs de “Veilleurs” de la Manif pour tous, interviewé par Russia Today comme un manifestant lambda, pour affirmer que les policiers sont en fait les casseurs. Bien sûr, sans aucune preuve. #fakenews https://t.co/D5gcwrkCFP
— Raphaelle Bacqué (@RaphaelleBacque) December 2, 2018
Don’t miss Arthur Goldhammer’s latest post on the Tocqueville 21 blog, “‘Ce peuple est encore dangereux’.”
À bientôt.
UPDATE: Mediapart editor-publisher Edwy Plenel has an excellent commentary, which has been translated into English, “The ‘gilets jaunes’ protests: the battle for equality.” Hopefully Mediapart will lift the subscriber wall for it.
2nd UPDATE: See Arthur Goldhammer’s latest post (December 4th), “Did Macron’s Tax Reforms Spark the Riots?,” which is based on this piece in the FT.
3rd UPDATE: Emile Chabal—a Reader in History at the University of Edinburgh—has an op-ed in The Hindu (December 6th), “United colours of the ‘yellow vests’,” that is one of the best analyses of the Gilets Jaunes I’ve seen so far in English.
Also see Adam Nossiter’s report (December 5th) in the NYT, “How France’s ‘yellow vests’ differ from populist movements elsewhere.”
4th UPDATE: Le Monde editorial director Sylvie Kauffmann writes in the NYT (December 6th) on “Macron’s moment of truth.” The lede: “Weeks of violent protest by France’s angry working poor are testing a president who promised the people reform but has failed to govern with them, rather than over them.”
5th UPDATE: Paris-based journalist Cole Stangler, who leans to the left, has a good piece (December 7th) in The Nation, “What’s really behind France’s Yellow Vest protest?” The lede: “It’s not just about the fuel tax; it’s about anger at ever-increasing burdens on the working class.”
6th UPDATE: Hudson Institute fellow Benjamin Haddad, a onetime UMP activist who strongly supported Emmanuel Macron from the outset of his presidential campaign, weighs in (December 7th) on “Macron’s moment of reckoning” in Politico.eu. The lede: “Protests are part of France’s DNA. These are different.”
7th UPDATE: Claire Berlinski, who’s a friend, has a piece (December 7th) in the right-leaning City Journal, “Riots in Paris: The police underestimated the madness of the crowd.” N.B. Contrary to what Claire writes, the regular army has not been deployed and there are no tanks on the streets of Paris.
8th UPDATE: Adam Gopnik, who knows France well, has his take (December 6th) in The New Yorker, “The Yellow Vests and why there are so many street protests in France.” He errs on a couple of historical details but gets the big picture right.
9th UPDATE: The Financial Times has a ‘Big Read’ article (December 7th) by reporters Harriet Agnew and Ben Hall, “‘Look at me, I exist’: French protesters send message to Macron.” The lede: “‘Gilets jaunes’ demonstrations have become a rallying point for a legion of disaffected workers.”
And the FT’s Paris correspondent, Simon Kuper, had a tweet storm (December 8th) with his “quick thoughts on what’s happening in France.”
10th UPDATE: See the 3-minute WSJ YouTube video, “What is France’s ‘Gilets Jaunes’ or ‘Yellow Vests’ protest movement?”
Better yet is the 5-minute interview (December 8th) with Arthur Goldhammer on France 24, “‘Yellow vest’ protests: What can Emmanuel Macron say to turn things around?”
11th UPDATE: I’ve copied-and-pasted in the comments thread below a lengthy take (December 11th) on the Gilets Jaunes by anthropologist Hannah Davis Taïeb.
as much as I would like you to be right, I fear Lichfield is to a large extent right
He’s been very insistent about it on Twitter today, repeating that he was there at the Place de l’Etoile and radial streets, saw the casseurs up close, and that they were indeed GJs. J’en prends acte.
you know we would all like it if it were the usual provocateurs and agents provocateurs,it would be more comfortable, but the reality is that violence is spreading throughout society. Which of course does not mean that the usual aren’t here. I, like so to speak every veteran of anti-fascist operations, know exactly who I’m seing when the thug wears a black helmet with two white stripes…
According to Le Monde there were four distinct groups of casseurs: the first to arrive on the scene, early in the morning, was the ultra-right (Action Française, Bastion Sociale), who were joined by radicalized GJs who came prepared to clash with the police. Later in the morning the ultra-left (antifas) and black bloc arrived, in part to clash with the ultra-right. Finally, during the afternoon, the usual hooligan suspects from the banlieue showed up, to loot and pillage. As the GJs were the least experienced in battling the police, they figured disproportionately among those who were arrested.
I fully agree with Dany (and Bernard above), once again, when he says : “On n’est pas dans une période révolutionnaire. On est dans une période de tentation autoritaire (…) Il y a une véritable crise sociale, un véritable problème de fracture sociale, d’inégalité et d’injustice dans ce pays. Mais il y a aussi une tentation pour répondre à ça, parce que la démocratie n’a pas réussi, une tentation autoritaire et totalitaire”.
Yes !
And the more this movement lasts, the less I like the smell of the gilets jaunes. And worst of all, the pathetic support of all the vast majority of disgruntled and grumpy people sitting comfortably in front of their television sets. Hold me back or I overthrow the table. Their program ? It was better before and fuck the future. Me, “us”, first. The basis of all populisms.
I understand the distress of many and the anger of some, but I don’t like the exhilarating feeling of the posses and the excitement of the wild bunches. I don’t like mobs. I don’t like the “barrages” and the “blocages”. I don’t like when a group of people, calls itself “the people”. The people is the sum of all minorities, not those who take their anger and frustrations to the street. I don’t like it when self proclaimed “leaders” refuse to meet elected representatives or answer to the governments proposals by “too late !”. They seem to want a punishment more than a solution.
I believe Macron started barreling down the road to oblivion this summer with the Benalla story. Now he is toast. There is no way back. He will finish his term locked inside the Elysées. The prospects are very gloomy. I don’t see the gilets jaunes go back home and resume business as before. They smelled blood. Others did too. The executive is wounded. The CGT will demonstrate and the FNSEA and then more and more… And their only common objective will be down with Macron, down with the government.
I let you imagine the results of elections in case there is a dissolution of the national assembly. Which seems possible. We might envy the Italians…
Very good, Massilian. It looks like we’re pretty much on the same page. As for Dany, I listened to him this morning too and liked what he said for the most part (for those who weren’t tuned into France Inter, go here).
I’m writing this in the hope that I’m completely out of line. If Saturday’s demonstrations turn violent, and if the worst is not certain, it remains likely, the government is done. Rapid legislative elections will be inevitable.
Depending on the result – quite predictable – Macron could be led to throw in the towel as De Gaulle did after the referendum in 69. I fear what awaits us, but I see absolutely no way Macron can still save his seat. The situation is so bad that I can even imagine a return of Nicolas Sarkozy as a positive thing!
We’re all holding our breath for Saturday but FWIW I think the forces de l’ordre will have a better handle on things than they did last week. But if the shit does hit the fan again, I don’t see Macron dissolving the National Assembly, as he knows he’ll lose his majority (as for who could possibly win, I have no idea). And Macron will certainly not throw in the towel himself. N’y pense même pas. (As for CDG, his circumstances in 1969 were very different). France is in a very bad state – politically and otherwise – but given the present champs de ruines of the parties of government, is absolutely not ready for early elections.
I can’t stand the unbearable chatter from guests of C dans l’air, BFM, LCI etc. about the yellow vests. I don’t see why the words of Bruno Jeudy (and all the others, even Françoise Fressoz…) are so farsighted as to exceed those of the Bar des Sports around the block.
I do not share Arun’s optimistic view. I believe that whatever happens on Saturday between demonstrators and the police and whatever Macron says next week, things will not go back to normal.
Yes, of course, he will quickly sacrifice Edouard Philippe, but it will be hard to find someone with authority to replace him. Macron will not (can’t) provide a satisfactory answer to the general insatisfaction. The credibility of Philippe’s successor will melt away like snow in the sun as soon as he will announce new technical measures that will be questionable and necessarily insufficient.
I believe that more and more people on all sides are realizing that the 5th Republic with its royal-presidency no longer meets the democratic needs of the country. It is not the length of the term of office that is a problem, it is the presidential office itself. Yes, we will have to consider amending the constitution. Times are a changing’. We will have to do with the RIP, right to a referendum on popular initiative. Yes, the “elites” will have to let go of some power.
I believe that Macron no longer has a loyal party or a reliable majority in the assembly. The stampede has begun and it will accelerate. The LREM label will quickly become unbearable to wear in front of your local voters.
I understand Arun’s arguments and he is probably right, but I still believe that the country will not accept to be led by a man whose credit will no longer exceed 18% of favorable opinions. This is democratically unacceptable. He will be paralyzed. Macron will not be able to impose himself as Maduro, against the will of the French people. He will no longer have any international credit either. I don’t think the unions will come to his rescue. Macron will not recover a stable base to restore his authority. If he refuses the dissolution of the assembly, if there are no elections, he will finish his term hidden in the cellar of the Elysée.
Wether he likes it or not, I don’t think he will have a choice.
Of course, the opposition parties are very weakened, but in the event of parliamentary elections, I do not believe that voters will show up in as bad a mood as for the coming European election. I do not see yellow vest candidates invading the benches of the assembly as was the case with the REM newcomers. France will vote conservative again. The time for Wauquiez’s fall has come, he has failed as a leader. In the Republicains party, important movements will quickly occur. The R.N is not going to storm the assembly. On the left, it’s a desert for a long time. Melenchon has lost his aura. Ruffin (!), Corbière and company will not save the movement from its natural “insoumis” (!) marginalization.
So yes, I still think that this is only the beginning and that we are far from seeing things get back to what they were a couple of months ago.
Massilian: I share your ras-le-bol with bloviating media pundits, even if I do like watching ‘C dans l’air’ and find its guests interesting on the whole (with exceptions, of course, e.g. le branleur Christophe Barbier). I will be surprised if Macron dumps Philippe, who has been faithfully implementing his program and has more political credibility than Macron himself. It would be a total admission of failure – of Macron – and who would he replace him with? He would have to change the entire government, which is simply too tall an order right now and would, policy-wise, change nothing.
As for what you say about the Fifth Republic, I entirely 100% agree. The problem in France is in its structures of political representation. I will address this in my next post.
If the gilets jaunes movement deflates as it might be the case (but is the “peaceful” so far Paris demonstration today a sign of fatigue ?) then I was all wrong, it was just a strong but limited bush fire. If it lasts, mainly outside of Paris, with sporadic outbursts but doesn’t stop, then I might not be all that wrong. La France sera ingouvernable. I still believe that whatever speach and announcements Macron comes up with next week, he is finished in the public opinion. He’s going to rot for the rest of his term. I expect all major necessary reforms to be suspended for a long while. I expect les Républicains to get rid of Wauquiez soon and rebuilt a stronger opposition party. I can think of Le Drian to replace Philippe. I don’t think Philippe failed more than Macron, (both didn’t see shit coming for 3 weeks until they crashed into the dissent) but in the 5th republic the prime minister is a fuse. Sorry for the guy. I kinda liked his style.
While I do expect Saturday to be extremely violent, both from the manifestants and the police, I do not foresee rapid legislative elections. Chances are the government will be done and Philippe will have to go. But Macron will not resign, not his style. He will know that in legislative elections in this climate, LaREM would collapse and he will know that both France Insoumise and the FN (ok, RN) would make large inroads, and will not want that. He will likely think that the european elections will amply suffice in terms of eating crow.
My guess for what it’s worth is that he will name a government a little bit more left of center, concede some pay increases, and hope to inflate his way out of them to some extent in the future without blowing out of the euro. This will be a very difficult maneuver that will negatively impact France’s competitiveness, but desperate measures are needed to try to avoid the emergence of an authoritarian regime. He will try to find a common ground with unions, far too neglected up to now.
Why do you expect Saturday to be extremely violent?
(Wondering if you’ve heard/noticed something)
The police seem to be more prepared, they’ve arrested hardliners and radicals.
I do not expect legislative elections to be called, but I do expect a chance in the cabinet, probably the Prime Minister will go (and I’m hoping Castaner is moved to a position that suits him better.)
I did expect Saturday to be extremely violent, partly based on what Castaner had said – the peaceful gilets jaunes sould not come to paris, ie those who came would be violently treated as “factieux”, partly on what some of the gilets jaunes were saying during the week, and partly on the idea that having smelled blood – the government has started to retreat after the violence – the gilets jaunes might go for broke. I am glad to see that I was wrong.
Bernard: As I mentioned to Massilian, I don’t think Macron will replace Philippe – unless it were to signal a significant change in policy, which I cannot imagine with Macron. If he were to move to the center-left – whatever that would entail – he would need a first-tier center-leftist as PM, and who would demand free rein in formulating policy (assuming the REM in the AN would go along). If you have any candidates in mind, do let me know, as I can’t think of a single one.
BTW, no violence so far (Saturday 13:30).
I think their is a big difference between a general strike completely shutting down the country during the work week and the current “weekend warrior” Yellow Vests. The truth of the matter is French and European financial markets are basically relatively stable at the moment which is probably the only thing that could force a new government. France for example has a smaller bond yield spread over Germany than Belgium or Ireland.
I am coming to the belief that the original sin of today politics in BOTH Britain and France was the 1993 53-74 Maastricht Referendum which is basically being fought out over and over again in the streets of Paris and London. On the other hand I am strongly of the belief that Mitterand had no option once the 53% had it’s say to go ahead with monetary union over the objections of the French street and much of UK political establishment.
Tim: By the Maastricht referendum I take it you have in mind the single currency. This is a never-ending argument, and on which I’m still not sure exactly where I come down. The architecture of the euro is seriously flawed, which we now all know (at least those of us outside Germany), but if France still had the franc, the yield spread with DM bonds would be far wider. And a 100% public debt ratio would be a far greater burden than it presently is.
I don’t see the link between Britain and Maastricht.
Hannah Davis Taïeb – who was a longtime colleague of mine, has lived in France for many years, and is an anthropologist by training – posted the following on her Facebook page a couple of days ago (Dec. 11th):
An American friend asked me to write about the “yellow vest” movement here in France. Here goes. Anglophone friends in France, don’t hesitate to add your two cents.
In short, it’s a grassroots movement of the working poor and those on fixed incomes to protest laws that favor the rich.
The movement is extraordinary in being completely grass roots. Most demonstrations here are very organized and the institutional framework is evident – printed signs with planned slogans, leaders from unions or political parties or associations. In this case it’s very spontaneous. Not only are there no top-down orders, but there is a determined refusal of cooptation. So although a lot of political and union figures support the “yellow vests” but the movement doesn’t fall under their sway. And, there is no charismatic leader. The “yellow vest” itself is a perfect symbol, since all car-owners are required to have a yellow vest in their car. (I recently had a car breakdown on the highway and was glad to have mine.)
The issue is cost of living – and the impossibility of making ends meet for the working poor. The last straw was an ecologically motivated tax that heavily taxed diesel. But the issues had been building up – President Macron’s passing of laws that favored the rich and fell heavily on the lower classes, especially the lower middle class or working poor, or those on fixed incomes like retired people. Macron eliminated a special long-standing “tax on fortunes”; he increased the percentage paid for a special “social contribution tax”, a change that was harsh for those on low and fixed incomes; he removed regular cost-of-living increases for retirement and other social payments.
The “yellow vests” expressed their discontent first through demonstrations, usually blocking freeway entrances and exits throughout the country. The issue was clear: as Hulot, an ecological leader, put it, the tension was between “the end of the world” – ie the need to get out of fossil fuels as represented by the eco-tax on diesel – and the “end of the month”, making ends meet.
On the freeway, I interacted with them several times; I thought they were behaving in an exemplary and lively fashion. They set up “slow-downs” and carefully guided cars through the intersections. They know they have the support of a huge majority of French people and they interacted with us in a comradely way. Cars stopped and gave them things to drink as they clustered talking on the roundabouts. One “yellow vest” had put up a sign, that said “too lazy to think of a slogan.” They know that people know what they are about. On one toll road they took over the toll booths and waved us all through.
The “yellow vest” movement has spread to high school students, and also university students, who are upset about a major rise in tuition for international students that they fear is a precursor to a rise in tuition for all. (the tuition rise brought costs to 2770 euros per year for a BA student.)
The “yellow vests” started demonstrating in Paris and in other cities starting on November 17th. They have had three other such demonstrations, Nov. 24th, Dec. 1, and Dec. 8th. While the highway demonstrations were not particularly violent (though they did involve dangers, since frustrated automobilists sometimes charged the demonstrators and there were deaths), the national mobilizations were violent. All major demonstrations seem to attract “casseurs” – non-ideological rioters who take advantage of demonstrations to loot and destroy things, burning cars and smashing windows. The police responded quite vigorously. Some of the shocking things that occurred included the smashing of statues on the Arc de Triomphe; and the police disciplining of a group of high school students by having them kneel with their hands on their heads. These events demonstrate that there is a deep wellspring of unformulated frustration that wells up.
Despite these divisive images of violence, there is a tremendous agreement about French people in support of the movement. To their credit, the media focused on the actual issues, and I saw many excellent news documentaries simply about how people struggle to make ends meet on low and fixed salaries, with high taxes that hit them disproportionately, and with just enough to not qualify for social benefits. The slogan of the ecologist Nicolas Hulot was picked up and people agreed that we have to find a way to deal with both the end of the world and the end of the month.
I went to one demonstration in Paris and talked to a couple of people. One man had a hat that read: “Diesel: up 23%; salaries: up 0%; Raise salaries, pensions and benefits!” A rise in the minimum wage is one of their demands. I talked to a couple of “yellow vests” who were women my age. NB Many, many women are active in this movement, since the working poor includes a lot of single mothers; and a lot of women retirees are active. Anyway, these two told me that the system penalized people who made just a little bit too much to receive benefits that help the poor. They said, “the rich send their money to tax havens, and the poor receive benefits, but we just pay, and pay and pay.” One woman said that it was all very well to say that people should take the train (for ecological reasons or to avoid paying rising gas prices), but if you live two hours outside of the city, and work in the city, and there’s a train problem or you miss your connection, you can lose your job. It’s just not that easy.
To the credit of the “yellow vests”, they have steadfastly refused cooptation. I have seen examples of people from the sectarian left, as well as from the anti-Semitic and monarchist extreme right, as well as from the left and the right, trying to get in on the action, and pretending to represent the movement. But the “yellow vests” aren’t having it. It’s a real grass-roots action. This also means its confusingly without spokespeople.
Unlike so-called “populist” movements in other places, there has been so far no slippage into racist, anti-immigrant, or other so-called “populist” rhetoric. I feel that the movement really emerges from a long-standing French ability to actually talk about social class and from people with a sense that they have rights.
President Macron – whose reputation here is as being “Jupiterian”, ie arrogant and distant, and who has made disparaging comments about those in difficulty – finally took the floor and spoke last night on TV. He started out by reiterating that there would be no tolerance for violence. But, to his credit, he clearly and rightly differentiated between the “casseurs”’ and mass of this movement. Then, also to his credit, he took responsibility for having made errors; he cancelled the implantation of the diesel tax; he increased the minimum wage by 100 euros per month; he cancelled the increase in the ‘social contribution tax” for certain low-income retirees; he established an end-of-year bonus, which he seemed to be saying would be paid for by the government, though how he’s going to do that, I don’t know. He did not reinstate the “tax on fortunes” and he stands by the ecological goals, but he said he was listening and he made errors.
Some “yellow vests” thought he had gone in the right direction, but not far enough; others question whether the National Assembly will go along with what he said, and wonder where the money will come from… We shall see. I remain impressed that the actual economic issues were raised, in their own terms, and discussed on a national level, with working-class, middle-class people, lots of women, and lots of retirees, taking leadership.