
[update below] [2nd update below] [3rd update below] [4th update below] [5th update below]
That’s what political scientist Peter Dreier says and he’s right. There is no way Trump will survive what everyone agrees was the worst day of his wretched regime—and which is certain to be followed by even worse days. Benjamin Wittes, in a must-read analysis of Trump’s predicament, thus put it: “the mad king [is] surrounded, outmanned, outgunned, and that there’s no telling from where or when the next blow will come.” When I say he won’t survive, I mean finish out his term and then win reelection. Not a chance. À propos, Robert Kuttner had an incisive column earlier this month explaining “Why Trump won’t be the GOP nominee in 2020,” and which he followed up on three days ago with one on “the end game” of Trump’s fall.
So how will it end? There are two scenarios IMHO, the first of which has Trump finishing his term and running for reelection. One should normally not speculate on an election outcome two years ahead of time—and I normally never do so—but, in this particular case, I will categorically assert that, barring major voter suppression in key swing states (emphasis added), Trump will not and cannot win in 2020. There are two reasons for this: (a) The Democratic Party is nigh certain to be united behind its nominee (as there is no rhyme or reason why it won’t be) and with he or she equally certain to enjoy higher poll numbers than did Hillary Clinton in 2016 (but who still decisively won the popular vote, and losing the three famous rust belt states by razor thin margins in a freak electoral accident); and (b) Trump’s job approval rating will, on its own, all but guarantee defeat. I have written numerous times in regard to both US and French presidential elections that an incumbent president cannot win reelection if his job approval rating is below 50% on the eve of the vote. It’s perhaps possible at 49% but below that, he’s toast, as the election is, in effect, a referendum on him. The only exception here is if the challenger is an extremist—and with exceptionally high negative poll numbers—who unexpectedly faces off against the incumbent (e.g. Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002), but such an occurrence is exceedingly rare in a consolidated democracy and invariably only happens in two-round systems (and won’t in America in 2020).
Anyone with the slightest interest in politics knows that Trump’s job approval rating is the lowest of any US president at this stage in his term, though which, at 41 or 42% approval, still seems appallingly high in view of everything the S.O.B. has said and done. What is more significant than the overall approval/disapproval number, though, is the ones that express intensity of sentiment, of those who strongly approve or strongly disapprove of his performance. And here, Trump is way underwater in every last poll that breaks down the numbers this way. Depending on the poll, Trump’s strong approval ranges from 21 to 34%—his hard core base—and with his strong disapproval ranging from 37 to 51%. The spread is substantial in every poll. E.g. the latest Fox News poll (which FiveThirtyEight.com gives a grade of A) has Trump at 25% strong approval and 44% strong disapproval among registered voters. The latest Rasmussen poll (which tends to have a Republican skew) has it at 32/44, the YouGov poll at 28/46, the Morning Consult-Politico poll at 22/42, and the Quinnipiac poll (graded A- by 538) at 30/48. Et ainsi de suite. Conclusion: a lot more voters loathe Trump than love him. People who feel strongly about a candidate are, needless to say, highly motivated to vote. And they rarely change their minds. As for those who have tepid feelings—who somewhat approve or disapprove of Trump’s performance—and could possibly move to the other camp, one notes in all polls that the number here is higher with Trump than against him. In other words, there is greater potential for erosion in Trump’s approval rating than in the disapproval. Trump is thus already near his ceiling of approval, at 44 or 45% of registered voters (and likely voters as well; and does anyone at this point seriously think it could go higher, that he could exceed his 46% of the 2016 popular vote?). It is not possible for an incumbent to win a free and fair election with this level of unpopularity.
The second end game scenario involves Trump leaving office before his term is up, no doubt in the course of 2019. If the Dems win back the House in November, which is looking increasingly likely, they will most certainly hold hearings on impeachment, as the threshold here has manifestly been crossed, even without the Mueller report and whatever it may reveal or recommend. The process will be inexorable, with eventual cynical electoral calculations by establishment Democrats—as to whether or not impeachment will hurt them in 2020—falling by the wayside. A House of Representatives controlled by the Democrats will impeach Trump, as the hearings on the question will necessarily reveal that he committed high crimes and misdemeanors (how could they possibly not?).
As for the Senate, which the Dems could well take in the event of a salutary Republican wipe-out, that will depend. A year ago to this day, I predicted that the Congressional GOP leadership would, maybe before the end of 2017, decide to quickly impeach and convict Trump, that they’d just do it. I was clearly off on that, as I was in opining that Trump was losing the acquiescence of that GOP leadership. He clearly did not, au contraire. But as Never Trumper ex-Republican Eliot A. Cohen reminds us, “[s]ooner or later, tyrants are always abandoned by their followers.” Tyrants—and tyrant wannabes like Trump—are unloved. They have no friends. When it’s sauve qui peut, the rats jump ship. If the Republican wipe-out happens in November inshallah, there will, objectively speaking, be no reason for the Congressional GOP to continue to support Trump, at least not in the way it has up to now. If he’s impeached, they will tell him, as Barry Goldwater & Co did to Richard Nixon in August 1974, that he needs to resign. In a Senate trial, all sorts of information will come out, e.g. on Trump’s taxes, if it hasn’t already in the House hearings. If Trump decides to go down fighting, he will likely be convicted by the Senate, after which he will face the consequences. If he follows the friendly GOP advice, then he will stand a good chance of being pardoned, along with his family, by President Pence—which will no doubt be part of the deal. And the lickspittle sycophant Pence will willingly go along, knowing all too well that he wouldn’t be anywhere near where he is without Trump having put him on the ticket in ’16.
That is what will likely happen, as it will clearly be in the interests of both Trump and the Republicans. As for the Repubs, Pence will pursue precisely the same policy agenda as Trump—to the extent that he can in view of Democratic control of one or both houses of Congress—and with the stock market soaring to boot. Policy-wise, Pence will be every bit as bad as Trump, as Jane Kramer elaborated on last October, but at least the Dems and others will be able to focus on “the issues” and not be distracted by crazy tweets and outbursts, as political scientist Stephen Zunes submitted, or his vulgar, gross personality. And the far-right evangelical Pence—the inevitable GOP 2020 nominee—will be an even weaker general election candidate than Trump, if such is possible.
La messe est dite. À suivre, bien évidemment.
UPDATE: Republican media consultant and Never Trumper Rick Wilson—whose writing style I love—has a great column (Aug. 22nd) in TDB, “Manafort, Cohen, Omarosa: This is how it always ends for Trump’s scuzzy friends.” The lede: “Far from taking a bullet, Cohen shot a proverbial one at the Con Man in Chief, and Manafort may end up doing the same. The train wreck of Trump’s life is finally being exposed.”
2nd UPDATE: People have probably seen the comparisons of Trump’s behavior and mentality to that of a mob boss but if not, don’t miss Jeffrey Goldberg’s piece (Aug. 23rd) in The Atlantic, “Donald Trump’s Mafia Mind-Set: Listening to a legendary American mobster and hearing the president of the United States.” Also see NYT White House correspondent Mark Landler’s ‘memo’ (Aug. 23rd), “With a vocabulary from ‘Goodfellas,’ Trump evokes his native New York.”
3rd UPDATE: Continuing with the Mafia parallel, The Nation’s Joan Walsh has a good commentary (Aug. 27th), “The President is a white-nationalist mob boss—and his base doesn’t care.” The lede: “Diehard Trump supporters represent at most a quarter of the electorate, but dominate media discussions of the president’s standing. They shouldn’t.”
4th UPDATE: Paul Starr throws some cold water on what I’ve written above, in a sobering piece (Aug. 29th) in TAP, “No, Trump is far from finished: The Manafort and Cohen convictions haven’t changed the political realities.” I don’t disagree with anything Starr says, in fact. If the Democrats fail to win Congress—or at least the House—this November, then Trump will obviously finish his term—and with America in a very bad place by that point.
5th UPDATE: Former NYT Executive Editor Howell Raines has a ‘hot take’ piece (Aug. 18th) on the NBC News website, “Trump Twitter target Jeff Sessions is quietly doing exactly what he came to Washington to do.” The lede: “Following in the footsteps of Deep South segregationists, Sessions has weaponized the legal system against minorities, immigrants and political opponents.” Voilà one more reason why it is so imperative that the wretched Republican Party be destroyed, and ASAP.
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