Last February I wrote the following on social media, in an impatient response to numerous Democratic Party-voting worrywart friends who were losing sleep over Trump’s surge
Can I say something? At some point this year – in two weeks or eight months – Trump is going to crash and burn. It *will* happen – this is a certainty – and be a sight to behold. I just hope, for purely partisan reasons, that it happens after he gets the GOP nomination, and brings the wanker party in Congress down with him in the process. But there is not a snowball’s chance in hell that the American people will elect this loudmouthed, narcissistic egomaniac president of the United States. It will not happen. So I ask my liberal-lefty friends to please stop wringing their hands, fretting, spooking themselves, and getting all frantic and bent out of shape over this impossibility.
Now I did express less certainty last month over this confident assertion but, with Trump’s 2005 hot mic video, maybe we are indeed, at long last, witnessing the crashing and burning of his insane candidacy. How wonderful that would be. Inshallah.
It would also be nice if we could ban the expression “locker room talk,” which refers to the way men are thought to talk about women in the privacy of exclusively male company (and that mainly happens outside locker rooms). Now men, among themselves, often do talk about women in ways that they would not if their female companions or friends were present—and with women doing likewise when talking about men—but, personally speaking, I can’t think of any male friend of mine, since my early 20s at least, who has talked about women in the way that Trump did in the 2005 video—and when he was 59 years old—and of not only using vulgar language in referring to women but mirthfully recounting how he sexually assaults them. If this doesn’t cause his candidacy to crash and burn, then nothing will.
Everyone knows that Clinton’s poll numbers have dramatically improved since the first debate, with heretofore panic-stricken Dems now confident that she’ll win and handily. The numbers I’m tracking in particular are her and Trump’s favorable/unfavorable ratings and the spread between the two. Hillary’s position here has improved over the past week (see above graph). If the spread widens, as it no doubt will, the election is all but over. It’s in the bag.
It has been said countless times by pundits that Hillary’s negative favorable/unfavorable numbers are the worst in polling history for a presidential nominee, with the exception of Trump himself, and that such would normally be the electoral kiss of death. But Hillary’s present -9.5 favorable/unfavorable spread isn’t shabby at all when compared to that of French politicians with presidential ambitions, most of whom would die to have her numbers. The latest IPSOS-Le Point baromètre politique, which is the French polling gold standard for this ranking, reveals that only one top-tier French politico has favorable numbers, which is Alain Juppé, whose spread is +12 (48% favorable/36% unfavorable). Everyone else is in negative territory, and some breathtakingly so. E.g. François Hollande is at -65 (15/80)—which is not his record (he was at 13/83 in September 2014)—and with PM Manuel Valls—who may well jump into the PS’s January primary in the (likely) event that Hollande throws in the towel on seeking reelection—is at -48 (23/71). As these two men are the executives of an exceptionally unpopular government, they are thus being judged on their actual job performance. But Hollande’s two loudest detractors, Nicolas Sarkozy and Marine Le Pen—who have been doing nothing but shoot off their mouths—are hardly better off, with both showing identical numbers: -43 (26/69). This is quite something (and Sarkozy’s worst number ever, which is one reason why he cannot and will not win the LR primary next month, and also why Marine LP cannot and will not be elected president of the republic next spring). For the record, two other top-tier politicians, Jean-François Copé and Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, are also at -43 (18/61 and 24/67, respectively). The French electorate really doesn’t like its politicians these days, but which, contrary to popular belief, is not working to the benefit of Gallic Donald Trump wannabes.
So Hillary and Dem voters can take heart that it could really be a lot worse for her, i.e. she could be French.
UPDATE: TDB editor-in-chief John Avlon, who labels himself a centrist and independent, has an excellent commentary on how “Donald Trump just lost the election.”
Ditto for Ezra Klein’s latest in Vox, “A Donald Trump presidency would bring shame on this country: At long last, have we no decency?”